Off Target: Canada’s Uncertain Path to a Better Future
For four years, the Coalition for a Better Future has tracked Canada’s economic progress through our Scorecard Report, providing a comprehensive look at the numbers that matter most to Canada’s future prosperity.
Our 2025 edition of the Scorecard Report, Off Target: Canada's Uncertain Path to a Better Future, delivers a sobering message: Our economy is not growing fast enough to support rising incomes, secure our social safety net, or compete globally. It warns that we risk falling further behind than we are today, leaving us vulnerable.
Executive Summary
Canada’s economy hit troubling milestones last year. The country recorded its second consecutive year of declining per capita national income—something that has rarely occurred since the Second World War.
Over the past decade, per capita incomes have grown by just over one per cent, marking one of the weakest performances since the Great Depression. These numbers underscore the fragility of our economic growth and the implications for our standard of living.
Weak growth has broad consequences. At a time when we are facing growing protectionism from our largest trading partner, even existential threats, weak economic fundamentals makes us vulnerable. And there is a risk we could enter into a vicious cycle. Weak underlying conditions create a challenging investment environment for businesses. But the less investment, the weaker the economy gets, undermining our ability to brace and respond to external shocks or threats.
Weak growth also undermines progress on some socioeconomic metrics, such as income distribution and poverty rates are stagnating. For example, we’ve seen zero progress in closing income gaps for visible minorities, and labour outcomes for these communities are worsening as the job market slows.
A slowing economy also jeopardizes public support for climate transition efforts. If Canadians are struggling, they are less likely to back costly environmental initiatives. Declining support for these measures is already evident.
While we’ve made commendable progress in reducing emissions intensity, there is growing concern that the current complex system of rules, taxes and subsidies is untenable.
So, how do we course correct?
These are complex problems with no easy solutions. But the metrics reveal a clear Achilles’ heel: weak investment. An investment-first mindset is a necessary condition for sustainable economic growth.
There are no alternatives and no shortcuts.
Consider the recent approach to population growth. Bringing in hundreds of thousands of non-resident foreign workers at such a quick pace may have temporarily boosted spending, but it also exacerbated housing market pressures, proving unsustainable. The same applies to relying on debt financing to boost short-run growth, or a weakening currency to boost competitiveness.
The only surefire path to sustainable growth is increasing productivity. Solving the productivity puzzle begins with creating an environment more conducive to investment. This must be a priority
