Voter division and political uncertainties may stall Carney’s ambitions, say panelists at Scorecard reporting event
Theo Argitis, Editor-at-Large at The Hub Canada, and Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist at Nanos Research Group, discussed the post-election political landscape with Michael Serapio, Host of PrimeTime Politics on CPAC, during the Scorecard Reporting Event. PHOTO: MELANIE SHIELDS
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s minority government will face significant challenges in pursuing its ambitious policy agendas, experts said in discussing the post-election political landscape at the 2025 Coalition for a Better Future Scorecard reporting event.
The Scorecard tracks Canada’s progress on key economic, social, and environmental indicators over the next decade. The May 22 event brought together leading voices from across Canadian business and policy sectors.
Nik Nanos, Chief Data Scientist and Founder of the Nanos Research Group of Companies, and Theo Argitis, Editor-at-Large at The Hub Canada, discussed post-election voter sentiment and how the minority situation will impact the government's ability to pursue its ambitious policy agenda.
Nanos said Canadians remain divided following the election, with levels of support remaining stable for both major parties. He said the Liberals’ win resulted from interest in Carney, not from voters embracing the Liberal government of the last 10 years.
“It was about Mark Carney as someone, as a new leader on top of the Liberals, and people wanting to give him a try,” he said.
Nanos said non-Liberal supporters are firmly committed to wanting Canada to change course by removing the Liberals from power. He added that young people are experiencing an intensification of anxiety and pessimism, with United States President Donald Trump acting as an accelerator.
“The big question is, when's something going to happen? I think that's what young people want to know,” Nanos said.
Argitis said Carney’s momentum of support may slow as tensions with the U.S. appear to ease, considering Trump appears to be in a “deal mode” regarding trade. He added, without a crisis, transformative change may not move ahead, despite Carney’s campaign promises.
“That window for Mark Carney to move ahead with, you know, a transformative change, or using a crisis to move ahead with transformative change, might be a lot smaller, a lot more narrow than he thinks,” Argitis said. “It'll be very difficult.”
Argitis said inconsistencies in Carney’s campaign, such as his promotion of both the oil and gas sector and climate transition agendas, will require the Prime Minister to make some trade-offs. He added that rising support for Western separatism in Alberta will further complicate these tensions, especially considering the large Liberal Quebec caucus.
“He's got to show some type of progress on climate transition to, you know, satisfy, for example, his Quebec caucus,” he said. “Severe Western alienation, or some type of movement, separatist movement, coming out of Alberta—that will undermine his ability to do exactly that.”
Nanos said every prime minister has to deal with wild cards. For Carney, he said, he thinks those will be Trump and Western separatism, which could “easily derail his efforts to move forward on his big agenda”.
Nanos said Nanos Research Group, which surveyed 1,000 Albertans for the Globe and Mail, found only six out of 10 believed the best path forward for the province economically was with Canada.
“We have to take this seriously. It is actually critically important,” Nanos said.
Argitis said Alberta is using separatism as leverage within the ongoing unique political circumstances.
“Everyone is kind of holding their cards tight to their chests,” he said. “We'll see how Carney navigates this.”
